International buyers spurred Miami-area home sales to a new record in 2011, even exceeding sales volume during the height of the real estate boom in 2005, according to figures released Friday.

Broward County results were mixed, although inventory across both counties showed widespread depletions.

A total of 24,929 condominiums and homes were sold in Miami-Dade County, up 46 percent from 2010 and up 4 percent compared to 2005, according to the Miami Association of Realtors and the Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service. Condominiums sales surged 54 percent, to 15,009 in 2011, and home sales rose 36 percent to 9,920.

“We’re on the verge of a real estate boom,” said Miami Association of Realtors Residential President Patricia Delinois, citing an array of properties from the Design District and Brickell to Miami Beach.

International investors, with wads of cash, are behind the surge.

“Miami is a top market for international buyers,” Delinois said. “We are attracting people from Latin America, South America, Europe, all over the world. What could they not like in Miami?”

In December, sales of existing single-family homes in the Miami area jumped 16 percent, compared to December 2010. Sales of condominiums rose 22 percent. Those percentage increases beat the change in sales statewide, which dropped 2 percent for both condominiums and single-family homes.

Nationally, sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops rose 3.6 percent from December 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Overall, the inventory of residential listings in Miami-Dade dropped 39 percent from 24,278 to 14,087 over the last year, and 8 percent from November 2011 alone, figures show.

Bank-owned properties and short sales, comprising “distressed sales,” drove the rapid absorption, Realtors said. In December, 54 percent of all closed residential sales in Miami-Dade were distressed, compared to 59 percent in December 2010. Unlike a year ago, there are now more short sales closing than bank-owned properties, Realtors said.

“There is a waiting list of investors, with dual and triple offers on REO properties,” said Delinois, who is president and CEO of Century 21 Premier Elite Realty. “We have more of a demand for bank-owned properties than we have a supply.”

Cash sales continue to dominate in Miami-Dade, at 63 percent of total closed sales in December. Cash sales accounted for 42 percent of single-family and 77 percent of condominium closings. Nearly 90 percent of international buyers in Florida purchase properties all cash, Realtors said, compared to 29 percent nationally, reflecting the stronger presence of international buyers in the Miami real estate market.

In the Miami area, the median sales price of condominiums in December spiked 31 percent to $129,900 from a year earlier. The median price of single-family homes jumped 16 percent to $182,300. Statewide median prices in December increased 4 percent to $91,900 for condominiums and 1 percent to $134,300 for single-family homes. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,500 in December, a 2.5 percent drop from December 2010.

In Broward, single-family home sales increased 9 percent in December to 1,082, and condominium sales dropped 8 percent, compared to December 2010.

For the year, total single-family home sales in Broward fell 9 percent to 12,817 in 2011. Condominium sales rose 11 percent, to 16,714 in 2011.

Overall inventory in Broward dropped 35 percent for the year, to 12,997, the figures show.

In December, 46 percent of all closed residential sales in Broward were distressed, and there were more short sales than bank-owned properties.

Cash sales accounted for 38 percent of single-family and 81 percent of condominium closings in Broward.

In December, the median price of single-family homes in the Fort Lauderdale area was $189,600, up 7 percent compared to December 2010. The median price for condominiums dropped 3 percent to $78,200.

South Florida’s residential market, once barren and now booming, was buoyed by an influx of foreigners, led by Latin Americans. But a new player could be emerging from the Far East: China.

Largely quiet for much of the real estate rebound in Florida, Chinese buyers are beginning to consider residential investments in the area.

“It’s the first wave [of Chinese buyers],” said Ophir Sternberg, managing partner at Lionheart Capital, which owns the Ritz-Carlton Residences Palm Beach. “We think a lot of this is due to the recent downturn in the real estate market in China in the last couple of quarters. People that made a lot of money in China are now looking overseas to invest their money, and buy some prime real estate.”

Premier Sales Group co-owner Carolyn Block-Ellert, who is leading sales at the property, said the Ritz-Carlton had already completed several deals with buyers from China, and had begun developing a relationship with a master broker in Shanghai who is helping the project with marketing in that country.

“We’ve worked with our contacts to actually participate in events in Beijing, and we’re promoting and educating qualified potential prospects, leaders, and promoters [in China],” she said, noting that Ritz-Carlton was already a well-established brand in the country.

But the new Chinese buyer isn’t coming just for a place in which to invest her money. Many Chinese real estate buyers are also interested in obtaining the coveted EB5 Visa, which can entitle them to residency in the U.S.

Coral Gables-based Coldwell Banker Realtor Jeanne Nicastri said she had heard from a number of developers who had gone to China and Singapore looking to attract investments of $500,000 in their projects — the threshold for obtaining an EB5.

“I would say the main reason they’re interested in coming to the U.S. is for the visa, and a secondary interest is to choose a city that’s really interesting — with New York at the top of the list, and Florida next on the list.”

Nicastri said she had been working with Margaret Liu, a broker in New York City, one of the main entry points for Chinese buyers to the U.S., to facilitate deals in Florida.

Liu, owner of Battery Park Realty in New York, said another factor driving the trend was a recent policy change in China that limited the number of real estate units that can be purchased — most notably Beijing.

“A lot of the people who are coming are wealthy people cannot keep buying,” Liu said. “Another point is that everybody made their money [in China] and wants to put it in a safe transfer, or for their kids, who are coming over to study.”

Just how much Chinese investment eventually comes to South Florida is unclear

Generally, Nicastri said, Chinese buyers like to purchase where there is already an entrenched Chinese community, with Chinese people and Chinese restaurants — something which South Florida lacks right now.

But they’re also influenced by their friends, she said, and the more Chinese buyers that decide to make the move, the more that could join them.

“Although we’re a long way from China, we have become very trendy, and we’re on the trendy map,” Nicastri said. “Since they’re already involved in New York, and Miami is an offshoot of New York, that’s what’s driving them to come here.”

One X-factor is the Genting casino resort project in downtown Miami.

“If the Genting project breaks ground, and especially if the gaming gets approved, I think that will create a real rush of Chinese buyers into South Florida,” Sternberg said. “But right now what we’re seeing is the first trickle.”.

As difficult as it may seem to fathom, given the current macroeconomic data plaguing South Florida, indications are growing that the luxury condo resale market in Miami-Dade County is back — at least for the time being.

Foreign buyers with strong currencies complemented by a scattering of wealthy domestic purchasers acquired more $1 million condos in 2011 than in the last year of the South Florida real estate boom in 2006, according to an analysis of data from the Southeast Florida Shared Multiple Listing Service Database.

Buyers purchased nearly 590 condos for at least $1 million each in 2011 after acquiring less than 500 high-priced units in 2006.

On a year-over-year basis, the 2011 luxury condo resale activity represents a 29 percent increase from 2010 when fewer than 460 units were purchased for at least $1 million each in Miami-Dade.

Weeks into 2012, an additional 100 luxury units are already under contract waiting to transact.

Topping the list for the most expensive condo resale in the year 2011 is a penthouse in the Setai Resort & Residences in Miami Beach that sold for $21.5 million.

A pair of units in towers on South Pointe Drive in Miami Beach’s South of Fifth neighborhood rounded out the top three rankings for the highest priced resales for 2011.

In separate transactions, buyers paid $11.5 million for a penthouse in the Apogee condominium and $10.6 million for a high-floor unit in the Continuum On South Beach, respectively.

The resurgence in the luxury resale market has inspired an increasing number of owners – who had previously been unwilling to accept lower prices during the last five years of the real estate crash – to put nearly 1,000 condos on the resale market with an asking price of at least $1 million each.

Nearly 20 ultra-luxury condominium units are on the resale market for at least $10 million each with one unit asking as much as $38 million in the wealthy enclave of Bal Harbour.

Developers are also taking notice of the resurgence in the luxury condo market.

At least five new luxury condo towers – ranging from the one-unit-per-floor Regalia to the drive-the-car-to-the-unit Porsche Design Tower in Sunny Isles Beach – are planned or under construction in Miami-Dade County where the proposed sales prices are expected to surpass $1 million each.

The luxury condo revival in Miami-Dade County is not occurring at the same pace in Broward County where foreign buyers play a somewhat more limited role in transactions.

Buyers purchased less than 70 luxury condo resales in Broward County in 2011 compared to 100 high-priced units at the top of the market in 2006.

On a year-over-year basis, 2011 luxury condo resales in Broward County are up 11 percent from 2010 when 61 condos traded at a price of at least $1 million each.

Going forward, it is unclear if the Miami-Dade luxury condo market can maintain the resale pace given the current economic challenges in the European Union with the erosion of the Euro currency, the adoption of unpopular austerity measures and a series of downgrades by at least one influential rating agency.

Western European buyers from counties such as France, Germany, and Italy represent 19 percent of the estimated $318 million in monthly sales in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach market attributed to foreign investors, according to an August 2011 report by the National Association of Realtors.

After buyers from Venezuela, the Western European buyers are the second largest concentration of $1 million buyers of any international group purchasing in Florida, according to the report.

An estimated 12 percent of Venezuelan buyers spend at least $1 million while six percent of Western Europeans are purchasing in that high-priced category.

By comparison, an estimated two percent of buyers from Brazil spend $1 million and one percent of buyers from Canada are in the high-end price range, according to the study.

Another issue facing the Miami-Dade County luxury condo market is the growing number of units available for purchase on the resale market aside from the unsold developer units remaining from the last real estate boom.

Even at the strong 2011 resale pace of an average of nearly 50 units per month, Miami-Dade County has about 20 months worth of high-priced condos currently available for purchase.

Many industry watchers consider a healthy market to have about a six-month supply of inventory.

Reinvigorated sellers with optimistic pricing expectations are another issue facing the luxury condo market.

Sellers of luxury condos are currently seeking a median price of more than $1.75 million in 2012 compared to median transaction prices of $1.6 million in 2011, $1.5 million in 2010, and $1.51 million in 2006.

Given the emerging economic and psychology issues combined with continuing challenges associated with obtaining financing, it is unknown if the Miami-Dade County luxury condo market can maintain the 2011 sales momentum into the latter half of the year once the winter tourism season ends in the second quarter.

Forget Orlando. Miami could soon give tourists to the Sunshine State a run for their money once the new location of the Miami Science Center (MiaSci) opens. In the works for quite awhile now, the museum is slated for construction in late February. MiaSci will be centered around an indoor and outdoor “living core” of terrestrial and aquatic spaces, featuring a 600,000-gallon aquarium, a full dome 3-D planetarium and hands-on exhibits.

Fittingly the building, which will feature the latest in cutting edge sustainable practices, will itself be built to meet the U.S. Green Building Council‘s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) standards for energy use, waste management and environmental impact.  The U.S. Department of Energy has funded a number of studies to help make the building more energy-efficient and a weather station will be installed on site to provide information about amounts of sunlight, wind and rain available.

image via Miami Science Center

The Museum will include an Energy Center to monitor the green building’s performance, including everything from water consumption to the amount of renewable energy being produced on site. And of course, those monitoring systems will be incorporated in interactive displays for visitors to view.

The $275 million dollar project is being paid for by a mix of private donations and public funding. The John S. and James L. Knight Foundation just committed a challenge grant of $10 million to the Museum. The grant must be matched with an additional $20 million in funding. The donation is a way to encourage additional community support.

image via Miami Science Center

“Our gift to the science museum, equal in size to an earlier gift to the art museum that will stand by its side, is a recognition of the importance of science education and of the museum’s leadership,” Alberto Ibargüen, president and CEO of Knight Foundation, said in a statement. “Knight’s challenge grant is intended to galvanize support and accelerate the exciting community transformation at Museum Park.”

The new grant means fundraising for the project is in the home stretch, given that $70 million in private funding has been raised out of the $100 million goal. The remaining costs are being paid for government sources and by Miami-Dade County’s Building Better Communities Bond Program. The project was overwhelmingly approved by local voters in 2004.

Grimshaw Architects will be designing the 250,000-square-foot complex that is meant to be a shining example of ecological and sustainability principles, harnessing energy from water, sun, wind and museum visitor energy to power exhibits and conserve resources. The estimated completion date is early 2015.

South Florida saw continued strength in the residential market in 2011, enough so that a host of developers are planning new condominium and multi-family projects -- something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. As inventory falls, and prices begin to tick up, The Real Deal talked to some of Miami's real estate experts about what to expect in 2012. Here is what they had to say:

Philippe Lieberman, a partner at Miami law firm Kluger Kaplan Silverman Katzen & Levine

 A change in mood is palpable in the Miami real estate market. We are finding that our large real estate clients are turning guardedly optimistic about the direction in which the market is headed and are once again planning large construction projects of residential homes throughout South Florida. Developers are eager to build again.

Alyce Robertson, executive director of the Miami Downtown Development Authority

Downtown Miami's condo real estate market is bouncing back more rapidly than expected. This turnaround is thanks in large part to foreign buyers who see the value of owning property in our urban core and young renters who have fueled strong demand for downtown living. We expect that this trend will continue in 2012, further positioning downtown as a vibrant, 24-7 center.

Franck Dossa, principal broker at Condhotel

The banks will not start lending. I think they'll start lending in 2013 or 2014, but not significantly. In 2012, prices will go up, especially in the prime areas like Brickell, Midtown and Miami Beach. The suburbs will continue to suffer, but the foreclosures will not have any effect in the prime areas. International buyers will continue to come to Miami, but less than this year -- but we're going to have more traffic.

Daniel De La Vega, a broker at One Sotheby's International Realty

I think prices are going to stay the same, but I think there's going to be a lot more activity. We had a great second and third quarter of 2011, and I expect that continue the momentum through the season and into the second quarter of 2012.

Peter Zalewski, founder of Condo Vultures

It looks like all the overhang of new condo product from the boom and ultimately the bust should probably be taken down by this time next year. In 2012, you'll start to see a thawing of financing for existing owners, i.e. the refis, and I think you probably start to see a little bit of loosening up on the individual buyer. There's just too much action to think that it's going to slow down from a financing perspective. We're not back to where we were in 2006, but it will be a noticeable difference from 2008 to 2009. But we've still got quite a way to go.

Diane Lieberman, founder and broker at SBI Realty

If we're talking about the Miami/Miami Beach area, I think that prices are going to start to go back up again. That's because inventory has dropped so significantly. What's happening is that at the really good properties, prices are all tightening up. And anybody that's been sitting around on the sidelines and thinking they're going to get a steal -- there's not going to be anything left.

Alicia Cervera Lamadrid, chairman of Cervera Real Estate

I think we're going to continue to see increased activity. I'm expecting that banks will finally start coming into the real estate game, and we've already seen them tiptoe in and slowly get more sensitive in their loans to value. I think that's starting to change, and it will open more of the domestic market, which has been slow entering to the Miami market.

Philip Spiegelman, co-principal at Related ISG

What we see for 2012 is the substantial completion of the sale of the standing inventory that was built during the boom. So we believe that the majority, or a substantial majority, of that inventory will have been absorbed by the end of 2012. We see more development coming in 2012, and we see that adjustment or shift as it starts to create more offers. Latin America will continue to play a significant role, but we believe we will start to see real activity out of New York, the Northeast and Canada. I think it's a watershed moment in the economy of South Florida and the industry of real estate construction.

Foreign ownership in American real estate sits at about eight per cent - but that percentage is worth $82 billion US, says the National Association of Realtors.

Homes in many parts of the United States are now worth what they were nearly 10 years ago in 2002, says a report from the association - and it's this decline that is attracting foreigners, mostly Canadians, to snap up a seasonal home at dirt-cheap prices.

From a seller standpoint, the market is "pretty bleak," says Tom Burk, an associate broker with Sotheby's Realty International who has a long career of selling real estate on both sides of the 49th parallel. "Given all the bad economic news in Europe and the near political paralysis in the U.S., markets there are struggling to show any kind of consumer confidence."

In cities where investor interest is high "like Phoenix, Palm Springs or Las Vegas, there is optimism - but in most cities, it's pretty bleak," says Burk.

A survey by U.S.-based Credit Sesame of where foreigners are buying, what they are purchasing and how much they are paying shows that the largest group comes from Canada, with Asians and Europeans second and third.

Arizona is the fourth most popular destination for these buyers, trailing Florida, Texas and California.

The largest percentage are buying detached single-family homes for use as a primary residence - and they are paying less than $100,000 each.

Recent reports have claimed that Canadians are the top-ranked outof-state buyers of homes in Arizona, which is still under siege by the flagging economy.

The average Arizona home now sells for about half of what it would have five years ago, says the Federal Housing Finance Agency in the U.S.

The price dropped another 4.6 per cent from the first to second quarter of this year - driving the decline to nearly 15 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The housing market likely won't turn around until the fundamentals improve, said Marshall Vest, an economist at the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona in an interview with the Arizona Republic.

But that won't start until the excess of available homes is absorbed, he said.

"We have enough vacant houses in Arizona to accommodate an entire decade worth of population growth - and that's if the population were growing," said Vest.

The recession has changed the way people look at real estate, says Burk.

"It has affected people's ideas about timing, but it has not affected the basic belief that buying a home and raising a family in that home is fundamental to American values, in many cases," he says.

Burk's views are shared by Frank Anton, CEO of the national research firm of Hanley Wood in the U.S.

"We thought people would be soured after watching home values fall, but instead we found the typical American still places high value on home ownership," says Anton. "We found this holds across all demographic groups and across the country, even in hard-hit places like Arizona and Nevada."

Credit Suisse Group surveys real estate professionals in several cities in the United States on a monthly basis.

The global financial services company uses 50 as the benchmark for each of nine questions. Above 50 indicates a positive trend, while below 50 means a negative one.

For Phoenix, the report says home prices held steady for October (50 points versus 40 in September), listings remained high (76 points), and buyer traffic inched up to 40 points.

Down the road in Tucson, buyer traffic jumped to 43 points from 27, while prices totalled 43 points (an improvement from 27).

"The economy is poor and unemployment is too high. Nobody wants to buy in this type of environment," says one realtor.

Las Vegas is also being hit hard by the continuing economic chaos.

"Traffic remains steady on interest from deal-seeking buyers," says the Credit Suisse report.

But prices remained under pressure with an index of 44, down from a previous 48, while listings were high at an index of 59.

"Low prices and interest rates continue to spur inquiries and activity," says a Vegas realtor in the survey. "Cash buyers are really driving sales."

In San Diego, buyer traffic remained very weak with an index of 15, while house prices sat at 25.

"The constant negative news is affecting buyers' confidence and there is a lot of uncertainty about a potential double-dip (a return of inflation)," says a realtor.

Meanwhile, traffic levels in the San Antonio, Texas, market left a lot to be desired - falling to an index of 14 - while the price index sat at 36.

"Many sellers would like to take advantage of the low interest rates, but we need the buyers to feel confident to keep the ball rolling," says one real estate professional.

In Miami, Fla., things were looking up, with traffic improving to an index of 39 while priced edged up to 48.

"Cash buyers, both domestic and foreign, are controlling the market," says a realtor in the Miami area.

Meanwhile, Portland, Ore., which sees buyers from B.C., has seen a strong jump in traffic - almost doubling to an index rating of 25, while prices held steady at 19 points.

Traffic is on the increase, says Debbie Tebbs, broker/ owner of Cascade Sotheby's International Realty.

"They are doing so because they believe we are at the bottom," she says.

"There has been a price correction of up to 60 per cent in some areas."

Miami Beach hotels have a good thing going compared to Las Vegas.

An analysis conducted for the city of Miami Beach by Strategic Advisory Group shows Miami Beach’s top hotels ring up dramatically higher rates – often twice as much – as similar properties in Las Vegas.

The figures underscore concerns by hoteliers in Miami Beach and elsewhere in Miami-Dade County, who fear that the arrival of two proposed destination resort casinos could drive down room rates. That worry is driven in large part by the size of Genting’s Resorts World Miami, the $3.8 million project with plans for 5,200 rooms on The Miami Herald site.

That amounts to a 25 percent increase in Miami-Dade’s current upscale hotel market, which includes 20,313 luxury and deluxe hotel rooms. The largest hotel now in this category is the Fontainebleau Miami Beach, with 1,504 rooms.Based on past history, it would take 19 years for the county to absorb an additional 5,000 rooms , Strategic Advisory Group found.

“If you put 5,000 hotel rooms in Downtown they will suck out everything surrounding them,” said Stuart Blumberg, the retired head of the Greater Miami and the Beaches Hotel Association. “It will take 19 years for the current hotels to break even. They’re going to destroy the market inventory.”

Max Sklar, director of tourism and cultural development for Miami Beach, referred calls for comment on the analysis to the Miami Beach City Manager Jorge Gonzalez, who did not respond to multiple messages. Strategic Advisory Group declined to comment on the report. A spokesman for the Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau said it had had not received any information from the city.

If Miami-Dade County were to see two projects of this magnitude come online simultaneously that would be the equivalent of 34 years of historical supply growth. In the short term, that could mean a supply of room nights about twice the level of demand, based on the analysis, which used rate information from Smith Travel Research.

Some of Strategic Advisory Group’s findings:

•  Miami Beach hotels in 2010 rang up an average daily room rate of $189 with an occupancy rate of 68 percent. That number jumps to $243 if you only include the city’s six convention hotel: Fontainebleau, Loews Miami Beach, Renaissance Eden Roc, Royal Palm Hotel, Shore Club Hotel and The Palms Hotel & Spa.

By contrast, the hotels on the Las Vegas Strip in 2010 posted an average daily room rate of $112 with an occupancy rate of 89 percent. That number drops to $48 for the hotels in Downtown Las Vegas.

•  Surveys of published hotel room rates for January through June 2012 found that the Wynn was the only Las Vegas hotel of the six surveyed that had an average rate comparable to those of nine hotels surveyed on Miami Beach. The survey looked at the Hilton, Luxor, MGM, Caesars, Venetian and Wynn in Las Vegas. The Miami Beach survey looked at the Palms, National, Marriott, Eden Roc, Loews, Fontainebleau, Ritz, Delano and W.

•  Miami Beach’s average published room rate during January through June was $448 on Tuesday and Wednesday nights – nearly double the average that Las Vegas Hotels ring up on Fridays and Saturdays.

•  Miami Beach published rates on Friday and Saturday nights for January through June 2012 range from an average of $367 at the Palms to $747 at the W Hotel, with an average of $506. By comparison, Las Vegas published rates for the same months range from $119 at the Hilton to $476 at the Wynn., with an average of $239. If the Wynn is taken out of the average it drops to $192.

•  Miami Beach published rates on Tuesday and Wednesday nights for the same period, range from an average of $280 at the Palms to $661 at the W Hotel, with an average of $448. By comparison, Las Vegas published rates range from $74 at the Luxor to $353 at the Wynn, with an average of $206.

But Blumberg questions the point of the analysis. He thinks the data simply reveals what has always been obvious.

“Las Vegas is not a comparable market to Miami Beach and it never was,” Blumberg said. “We’re always going to come out with a higher rate. You want to compare us to New York, New Orleans or Atlanta.”

In South Florida’s turbulent real estate market, 2011 was a year marked by competing and contradictory trends.

A November sales report released Wednesday by the Miami Association of Realtors highlights a few of the head-scratching trends of the past year, with rising sales volumes, depressed prices, cash-buyers and unprecedented international demand for distressed properties.

Consider:

•  International buyers flocked to South Florida in 2011, spending more than $3.5 billion in cash on discounted real estate, while thousands of locals struggled with underwater homes, a nation-leading foreclosure backlog and a tight credit market.

•  Soaring sales and shrinking inventory—two trends that normally lead to price appreciation—were accompanied by low, stagnant prices as the market anticipated a second wave of foreclosures.

•  More former homeowners became renters, but that actually helped the home sales sector (which normally competes with the rental market for demand). That’s because investors bought up thousands of distressed homes, renovated them and flipped them into rental properties.

•  The supply of homes for sale decreased by 40 percent to about 28,000, but the so-called “shadow inventory” of foreclosure homes not yet for sale ballooned to more than 200,000, thanks to a temporary slowdown in foreclosures.

In pure numbers, South Florida existing home sales in November increased at a slower pace than earlier in the year, but median prices began to show signs of improvement.

There were 1,064 condo sales in Miami-Dade County in November, up about 2 percent from the same month last year and down from 1,202 in October, according to Wednesday’s report. Single family sales rose 11 percent year-over-year to 755, little changed from October’s total.

In Broward, condo sales fell 1 percent year-over-year to 1,089, and that total was down slightly from 1,150 sales in October. There were 961 single-family sales in November, up 22 percent from last year but down 3 percent from the previous month.

South Florida’s sales pace is cooling just as the sluggish national housing market is starting to pick up steam. National home sales increased 4 percent between October and November to an annual pace of 4.4 million, up 12.2 percent for the year.

So what’s on the horizon for South Florida in 2012? Well, the forecasts are as conflicting as the year past.

“I don’t think any real rebound is going to happen until at least 2013,” said Jack McCabe, CEO of Deerfield Beach-based McCabe Research & Consulting. “Right now we have 371,000 open foreclosure files in Florida, and you have 800,000 mortgages that are 60 days late or in default. I don’t see the market rebounding for at least two years.”

Terri Bersarch, Broward County board president of the Miami Association of Realtors, sees it differently.

“Condominium prices in Broward County have risen consistently since January of this year, a very important sign of market strengthening,” she said in a statement. “Strong demand resulting in limited supply should yield continued market strengthening in 2012.”

Only 2012 will tell who’s right. Meanwhile, here’s a look at some of the main trends from 2011, along with forecasts for the 2012 housing market.

•  International buyers fuel record sales year

South Florida home sales will likely set a new sales record in 2011, mostly because buyers from Latin America have spent record amounts of cash investing in local real estate. In November, about 60 percent of South Florida home sales were all cash, and most of those involved international buyers.

Buyers from outside Miami are the main reason Miami Beach-based One Sotheby’s International Realty grew its business by 250 percent this year, topping $1 billion in sales, said company president Beth Butler.

“We’ve done a lot this year to expand and engage international markets, specifically Brazil, Argentina and Peru,” she said.

In overbuilt areas like downtown Miami, international buyers have helped populate formerly empty condo towers created before the housing bust.

Out of 23,000 condos built downtown during the boom, only about 2,000 remain unsold, and international buyers account for more than 80 percent of new condo sales.

Led by Brazilians and Canadians, international buyers spent more than $3.8 billion—90 percent of it in cash—on South Florida real estate in the last year.

2012 Forecast: The international buying spree is expected to continue next year. With European markets still turbulent and the Latin American economies thriving, South Florida is well-positioned to benefit from two trends that could lead to more capital investment in the United States. Anticipating continued demand from Latin America and Europe, several developers have launched plans to build more than 20 new condo towers for South Florida.

South Florida-based buyers have been effectively shut out of the market, due to high unemployment and the sheer number of distressed homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth — a condition likely to continue.

•  Prices stay low

Despite a supply of homes for sale that has fallen significantly over the past year, home values remain depressed. The reason: Most of the homes being sold are distressed properties that usually sell at discounts of at least 20 percent compared to non-distressed homes. In November, more than half of all sales involved foreclosures and short sales. In a normal market, distressed homes make up less than 5 percent of sales.

In recent months, however, home prices have begun to show signs of stability. Condo prices have increased for four straight months and single-family home prices are close to where they were a year ago.

2012 Forecast: Overall prices could either continue to strengthen or fall again in 2012, depending on what happens with tens of thousands of currently stalled foreclosures. If banks ramp up their slowed foreclosure machines, as expected, a deluge of discounted properties could drag down prices further in the coming year. On the other hand, if inventory continues to shrink, prices could finally begin to stage a sustained rebound.

“You can look at the falling inventory and see that, especially in some of the far eastern waterfront areas, prices are starting to increase because there’s nothing left to buy,” said Butler.

•  Foreclosure slowdown

In 2011, tens of thousands of South Florida homeowners got a temporary reprieve from foreclosure because of paperwork problems that stalled the court repossession process.

Mortgage lenders, accused of “robo-signing” court foreclosure documents, slowed their repossession machines this year, leaving thousands of cases in limbo. There are more than 100,000 foreclosure cases currently pending in court, and some of them have been in litigation for several years. Those homes are part of the region’s large “shadow inventory,” which industry watchers describe as the true supply of homes once foreclosures and bank-owned properties are included. The sheer size of that shadow inventory, estimated to be as high as 200,000 in South Florida, has kept prices relatively low this year.

2012 Forecast: There’s ample evidence that the year-long foreclosure holiday will come to an end in 2012, as banks look to take back more delinquent homes. Foreclosure filings rose 52 percent in South Florida in October, with bank repossessions nearly doubling from the month before, according to real estate research firm RealtyTrac. As more bank-owned properties make their way onto the market next year, prices could be forced downward, said McCabe.

•  Rental market strengthens, fuels sales

With mortgage rates at record lows and home prices down some 55 percent from 2006, owning a home is probably the most affordable it’s been in recent memory.

But the traditional candidates for homeownership —young couples and growing families — are opting to rent in growing numbers. South Florida’s rental market has seen occupancy increase to more than 95 percent this year, and prices are up between 3 and 7 percent, according to Texas-based MPF Research.

Ironically, the surging rental market is helping boost activity on the sales side.

Raul de Varona, chief operating officer of Miami-based real estate firm The Solution Group, is part of a new crop of investors buying cheap homes at a fast clip with the aim of converting them into rentals.

“We’ve acquired at least 40 percent more inventory than we did last year and our portfolio has really increased, twofold if not threefold,” said de Varona, who often fixes up the homes and sells them to international investors as rental properties. “There is significant interest in U.S. income-producing real estate.”